#06
When will AI be smarter than any human (AGI/ASI)?
Interviews
11
Answers
12
X posts
6
Span
2023 to 2026
First asked Nov 9, 2023, most recently Jul 23, 2026. Excerpts below are from machine transcripts with filler words (um, uh, you know) and stutters removed; … marks a cut. They are not checked word for word, so use the link to hear the exact words, or the transcript link for the raw text. Timestamps: 6 cross-checked against YouTube captions, 4 from the archive transcript only, 1 unverified caption-only, 1 unverified (archive time, not checked against the X video). X has no link-to-time option, so X links open at the start.
How the answer evolved · oldest first
Nov 9, 2023 · Lex Fridman Podcast · asked by Lex Fridman
Q: What are the pros and cons of open sourcing AI to you as another way to combat, you know, a company running away with AGI?
In order to run like really deep intelligence, you need a lot of compute. So it's not like you can just fire up a PC in your basement and be running AGI. At least not yet. Grok was trained on 8000 A1 hundreds running at peak efficiency. And Grok's gonna get a lot better, by the way. We will be more than doubling our compute every couple months for the next several months.
Mar 25, 2024 · Abundance360 Summit · asked by Peter Diamandis
Q: I'm curious, how far out do you think you're able to see how many years out beyond today, given the speed of change?
Well, when things are changing rapidly, the ability to predict the future I think is. Becomes a lot harder because the rate of change is so great. But I think some things are fairly obvious to predict, which is that we'll have AI or AGI. That's at a level that it can really do almost any cognitive, I think really, not almost really any cognitive task. It's just a question of when. One could debate is it smarter than …
Apr 8, 2024 · In Good Company · asked by Nicolai Tangen
Q: So when do you think we'll see proper AGI?
Well, it depends on how you define AGI. If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably end of next year, like within two years. But that's that there's still a pretty big leap beyond that, to say, smarter than the machine, augmented human collective. So is it smarter than all humans working together who are also using computers to augment their output? And that, I think, is probably five …
Oct 7, 2024 · Tucker Carlson · asked by Tucker Carlson
Q: Where are we on AI right now, AGI right now? And what are your views?
Well, I think at this point it's obvious to everyone that AI is advancing at a very rapid pace. Yes, you can see it with the new capabilities that come out every month or every week. Every week sometimes. You AI at this point can write a better essay than probably 90%, maybe 95% of all humans, say, write an essay on any given subject. AI right now can beat the vast majority of humans. If you say draw an image, draw …
Watch on X at 1:19:57 ↗Transcript ↗Unverified timestamp: from archive transcript, not checked against the X videoMar 17, 2025 · Verdict with Ted Cruz · asked by Ted Cruz
Q: Let me ask AI, in 10 years, how is life going to be different because of AI for, for just a normal person?
Well, 10 years is a long time. In 10 years, probably AI could do anything better than a human can cognitively. Probably almost. I think in 10 years, based on the current rate of improvement, AI will be smarter than the smartest human. There will also be a massive number of robots, so humanoid robots.
Jun 19, 2025 · Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · asked by unknown
Q: What will these deep intelligences actually be doing? Will it be scientific research or trying to hack each other?
Probably all of the above. I mean, hopefully they will discover new physics, and I think they're definitely going to invent new technologies. Like, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. A digital superintelligence defined as smarter than any human at anything.
Jul 27, 2025 · X Takeover · asked by Interviewer
Q: How will we know that we've crossed that line?
Like, well, I'm not sure it's like a massive, it may be less profound than. At least the first will be less profound. Like AI has not done yet is invent new technologies that are useful. So it hasn't has discovered new physics and it has invented technologies that are useful. But I think that is something that will happen. Yeah.
Jul 27, 2025 · X Takeover · asked by Interviewer
Q: Are we co pilots, overseers or just legacy code?
Well, it won't just be grok, there will be many AI. There will be at least I think four major AIs, maybe five just in the United States. And so even if was not developed, there would still be digital superintelligence. And I've been fighting personally sort of driving hard on digital superintelligence for a long time because I wasn't sure if this is a double edged sword or a single edged sword or what. But it became …
Jan 22, 2026 · Davos · asked by Larry Fink
Q: Is that, can you, are you more certain what's going to happen the next three years or five or 10?
I don't know what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing, I think we're, we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year. And I Would say no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031, call it five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.
Feb 5, 2026 · Dwarkesh Podcast · asked by Dwarkesh Patel
Q: Do you think that's the basic scenario for humans in the post AGI world?
I think AI with the right values, I think Grok would care about expanding human civilization. I'm going to certainly emphasize that. Hey, Grok is your daddy. Who cares to expand human consciousness. Actually, I think probably the end banks culture books are the closest thing to what the future will be like in a non dystopian outcome. So understanding us, it means you have to be truth seeking as well. Truth has to be …
Mar 18, 2026 · Abundance Summit · asked by Peter Diamandis
Q: And how. What's the timeline for AGI and asi?
Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here. If you mean by like recursive self improvement without a human in the loop, is that what you mean?
Jul 23, 2026 · The Economist: Interview with Elon Musk · asked by Zanny Minton Beddoes
Q: Do you have higher confidence level in your expectations of the future for AI, the first part of our conversation, or the latter part, the political part?
The, I mean, AI is digital superintelligence is called the singularity, like a black hole, because you don't know what's going to happen after that. And it sort of sucks in everything. So I think really, in terms of the really big macro effects here, AI and robots will really dominate everything. So on a time scale that is less than 10 years, which probably renders
In his own posts on X
@elonmusk · Jul 10, 2025
Grok is already far smarter than humans in most respects. It can’t yet create new technologies or discover new physics (which very few humans can do) and sometimes misses on common sense. When Grok goes far wrong, that is usually due to something foolish we did, like a bad system prompt or placing too much weight on biased sources. Also, we need to complete improved image training, as even Grok 4 is still partially blind. That will be solved in a month or so.
View on X ↗@elonmusk · Jul 14, 2025
AI is already much smarter than most humans, just not yet smarter than any human at anything and much less smart than a group of smart humans using computers (aka “a company”). But it will be. Probably smarter than any single human at anything in <2 years and smarter than all humans combined in ~5 years. Make sure AI is maximally truth-seeking, even if there are some bumps along the way.
View on X ↗@elonmusk · Oct 18, 2025
@kimmonismus Capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do, but not smarter than all humans and computers combined. That’s probably three to five years away. Grok 5 will be better at AI engineering (called “research” by the pompous) than @karpathy, for example.
View on X ↗@elonmusk · Jan 22, 2026
Just started Tesla Robotaxi drives in Austin with no safety monitor in the car. Congrats to the @teslasi team! If you’re interested in solving real-world AI, which is likely to lead to AGI imo, join Tesla AI. Solving real-world AI for Optimus will be 100X harder than cars.
View on X ↗@elonmusk · Mar 4, 2026
Tesla will be one of the companies to make AGI and probably the first to make it in humanoid/atom-shaping form
View on X ↗@elonmusk · Jun 21, 2026
@PeterDiamandis AI probably exceeds the sum of all human intelligence in 4 or 5 years
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