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Unofficial fan reference. Not affiliated with Elon Musk, X, SpaceX, Tesla, or xAI.

ElonFAQs

Tracker · 78 claims · 3 hit · 9 came true, late · 37 missed · 28 pending · 1 contested

Predictions

Dated “by year X” claims, each with the source where he said it and the source we used to mark it. Came true, late means it happened, but after the deadline he gave. Missed means the deadline passed and it still has not happened. Pending means the clock is still running or the outcome is not settled.

Showing 78 of 78

  1. P72Terafab would reach volume production of chips around Q3 2028, with a first test chip working around May or June 2027.SaidOct 20, 2026DeadlineAround Q3 2028Pending
  2. P73Starship would fly weekly at some point in the first half of 2027, and twice weekly or more in the second half.SaidOct 20, 2026DeadlineFirst half of 2027Pending
  3. P74SpaceX's annual recurring revenue would be between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027.SaidOct 20, 2026DeadlineBy end of 2027Pending
  4. P75SpaceX would have at least 13 gigawatts of compute online by the end of 2027.SaidOct 20, 2026DeadlineBy end of 2027Pending
  5. P76Starship Flight 15 would fly in November 2026 and attempt to catch both the booster and the ship.SaidOct 20, 2026DeadlineNext month (November 2026)Pending
  6. P77Grok Bot would be in wide deployment for enterprise customers within a few weeks of October 20, 2026.SaidOct 20, 2026DeadlineWithin a few weeks (about end of Nov 2026)Pending
  7. P78SpaceX revenue of $1 trillion in 2028 was no longer impossible. In June 2026 he had said SpaceX might reach about $1 trillion in revenue in 2030.SaidOct 20, 2026Deadline2028Pending
  8. P64The Star Mind computer, co-engineered by SpaceX and Nvidia, would reach volume production in 2027.SaidOct 15, 2026DeadlineNext year (2027)Pending
  9. P70The new Roadster's top speed would be much faster than 230 mph.SaidOct 15, 2026DeadlineOpen-ended (no date given)Pending
  10. P71China would be making a lot of RAM in 2028.SaidOct 14, 2026Deadline2028Pending
  11. P41The next Starship flight, attempting to catch the booster, would fly in about four to six weeks, a little before Thanksgiving.SaidOct 10, 2026DeadlineAbout late November 2026Pending
  12. P61Starship would be flying hourly within 2 to 3 years of September 2026.SaidSep 27, 2026Deadline2 to 3 years (by Sep 2029)Pending
  13. P58SpaceX would probably catch the Starship upper stage with the tower within a few months of August 20, 2026.SaidAug 20, 2026DeadlineWithin a few months (by end of Nov 2026)Pending
  14. P59The first Starship upper stage reflight would be at the end of 2026 or early 2027.SaidAug 20, 2026DeadlineEnd of 2026 or early 2027Pending
  15. P65By the end of 2026, AI would create binaries directly and traditional coding would no longer be needed.SaidJun 8, 2026DeadlineBy end of 2026Pending
  16. P62Universal high income paid by federal checks would not cause inflation, because AI and robotics would produce goods and services far in excess of the increase in the money supply.SaidApr 16, 2026DeadlineOpen-ended (no date given)Pending
  17. P68The new Roadster would be unveiled in April 2026.SaidMar 17, 2026DeadlineApril 2026Missed
  18. P37After shifting to the Moon, SpaceX would begin building a Mars city in about 5 to 7 years.SaidFeb 8, 2026DeadlineAbout 2031 to 2033Pending
  19. P30Cybercab, with no steering wheel or pedals, would start production in April 2026.SaidJan 28, 2026DeadlineApril 2026Hit
  20. P31Fully autonomous vehicles in a quarter to half of the US, and dozens of major cities, by the end of 2026.SaidJan 28, 2026DeadlineBy end of 2026Pending
  21. P63The next generation Neuralink implant, with 3X capability, would be ready later in 2026.SaidJan 28, 2026DeadlineLater in 2026Pending
  22. P67The new Roadster demo event would be on April 1, 2026.SaidNov 6, 2025DeadlineApril 1, 2026Missed
  23. P28Robotaxi would have no safety driver by the end of 2025.SaidSep 4, 2025DeadlineBy end of 2025Came true, late
  24. P66A demo of the new Roadster would happen at the end of 2025, or early 2026 at the latest.SaidJul 27, 2025DeadlineEnd of 2025, early 2026 at the latestMissed
  25. P26Autonomous ride hailing available to about half the US population by the end of 2025, subject to approvals.SaidJul 23, 2025DeadlineBy end of 2025Missed
  26. P27FSD would be available for unsupervised personal use in certain areas by the end of 2025.SaidJul 23, 2025DeadlineBy end of 2025Missed
  27. P29In 2026, owners would be able to add their own cars to Tesla's robotaxi fleet.SaidJul 23, 2025DeadlineDuring 2026Pending
  28. P25The first Tesla to drive itself from the factory to a customer's home would do so on June 28, 2025.SaidJun 10, 2025DeadlineJune 28, 2025Hit
  29. P55Version 3 Starlink satellites would start launching on Starship within 6 to 9 months.SaidMay 31, 2025DeadlineWithin 9 months (by end of Feb 2026)Came true, late
  30. P56An early beta of Grok 3.5 would go out to SuperGrok subscribers the next week.SaidApr 29, 2025DeadlineNext week (by May 11, 2025)Missed
  31. P24By the end of 2025 you could sleep in your car and wake up at your destination in many US cities.SaidApr 22, 2025DeadlineBy end of 2025Missed
  32. P23Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, with no one in the car, would launch as a paid service in Austin in June 2025.SaidJan 29, 2025DeadlineJune 2025Missed
  33. P48Tesla's internal plan called for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots in 2025. He said probably not exactly 10,000, but several thousand doing useful things in Tesla factories by year end.SaidJan 29, 2025DeadlineBy end of 2025Missed
  34. P52SpaceX would catch the Starship upper stage with the launch tower arms in early 2025.SaidOct 15, 2024DeadlineEarly 2025Missed
  35. P35The first uncrewed Starships to Mars would launch in the next Earth-Mars window, about two years out.SaidSep 7, 2024Deadline2026 Mars windowPending
  36. P36If the uncrewed landings went well, the first crewed flights to Mars would follow in about four years.SaidSep 7, 2024DeadlineAbout 2028Pending
  37. P60If all went well, hundreds of people would have Neuralink implants within a few years of August 2024.SaidAug 21, 2024DeadlineWithin a few years (by Aug 2029)Pending
  38. P54Neuralink hoped to implant ten patients by the end of 2024.SaidAug 2, 2024DeadlineBy end of 2024Came true, late
  39. P53xAI's Grok 3 would come out by the end of 2024, after training on 100,000 H100 GPUs.SaidJul 1, 2024DeadlineEnd of 2024Came true, late
  40. P38The first uncrewed Starship would land on Mars within about five years.SaidApr 8, 2024DeadlineAbout 2029Pending
  41. P39People would be back on the Moon within about five years.SaidApr 8, 2024DeadlineAbout 2029Pending
  42. P40The first people would be on Mars in about seven to nine years.SaidApr 8, 2024DeadlineAbout 2031 to 2033Pending
  43. P42AI smarter than any one human, probably around the end of 2025.SaidApr 8, 2024DeadlineAround end of 2025Contested
  44. P43AI's total compute-based intelligence would exceed all humans combined in about five years.SaidApr 8, 2024DeadlineAbout 2029Pending
  45. P69The new Roadster would go 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second.SaidFeb 27, 2024DeadlineOpen-ended (no date given)Pending
  46. P22Tesla would achieve Level 4 or 5 full self-driving later in 2023.SaidJul 6, 2023DeadlineBy end of 2023Missed
  47. P21Asked when Tesla would reach full autonomy, he said it looked like 2023.SaidMay 16, 2023DeadlineBy end of 2023Missed
  48. P20Tesla would solve neural nets and cameras to a level that matches or exceeds humans in 2022.SaidApr 20, 2022DeadlineBy end of 2022Missed
  49. P51Starship would reach orbit in 2022.SaidFeb 10, 2022Deadline2022Came true, late
  50. P19In 2021 the car would drive itself with reliability exceeding a human.SaidJan 27, 2021DeadlineBy end of 2021Missed
  51. P18Basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy would be complete in 2020.SaidJul 9, 2020DeadlineBy end of 2020Missed
  52. P17Robotaxi functionality was still on track for 2020, with regulatory approval the unknown.SaidApr 12, 2020Deadline2020Missed
  53. P49New US COVID-19 cases would be close to zero by the end of April 2020.SaidMar 19, 2020DeadlineEnd of April 2020Missed
  54. P45Cybertruck production would begin in late 2021.SaidNov 21, 2019DeadlineLate 2021Came true, late
  55. P50Starship would try to reach orbit in less than six months, provided design and manufacturing kept improving exponentially.SaidSep 28, 2019DeadlineBy late March 2020Came true, late
  56. P57People could fly on Starship in 2020, if it reached orbit in about six months.SaidSep 28, 2019Deadline2020Missed
  57. P44Neuralink wanted its first human patient implanted before the end of 2020.SaidJul 16, 2019DeadlineBy end of 2020Came true, late
  58. P16Over a million Tesla robotaxis on the road in 2020.SaidApr 22, 2019Deadline2020Missed
  59. P15FSD would be feature complete in 2019: find you in a parking lot and drive you to your destination without intervention.SaidFeb 19, 2019DeadlineBy end of 2019Missed
  60. P14Tesla would get to full self-driving, as a generalized solution, in 2019.SaidNov 2, 2018Deadline2019Missed
  61. P13Self-driving would cover all modes of driving by the end of 2019.SaidMar 11, 2018DeadlineBy end of 2019Missed
  62. P12The autonomous coast-to-coast drive would happen within three months, six at the outside.SaidFeb 7, 2018DeadlineBy August 2018Missed
  63. P46The Tesla Semi would go into production in 2019.SaidNov 16, 2017Deadline2019Came true, late
  64. P47The new Roadster would be available in 2020.SaidNov 16, 2017Deadline2020Missed
  65. P34At least two uncrewed cargo ships to Mars in 2022, a goal he called aspirational.SaidSep 29, 2017Deadline2022Missed
  66. P10By November or December 2017, a Tesla would drive from a parking lot in California to one in New York with no controls touched.SaidApr 28, 2017DeadlineBy end of 2017Missed
  67. P11About two years until you could buy a Tesla, take your hands off the wheel, go to sleep and arrive.SaidApr 28, 2017DeadlineBy 2019Missed
  68. P09A fully autonomous demo drive from Los Angeles to Times Square, with no touches including the charger, by the end of 2017.SaidOct 19, 2016DeadlineBy end of 2017Missed
  69. P08Autonomous driving is basically solved, and complete autonomy is less than two years away.SaidJun 1, 2016DeadlineBy mid 2018Missed
  70. P32SpaceX would send a Dragon capsule to Mars in 2018.SaidJun 1, 2016Deadline2018Missed
  71. P33If things went to plan, SpaceX would launch people to Mars in 2024, arriving in 2025.SaidJun 1, 2016DeadlineLaunch in 2024Missed
  72. P07Within two years you could summon your Tesla from across the country, charging itself on the way.SaidJan 10, 2016DeadlineBy early 2018Missed
  73. P06Complete autonomy in approximately two years.SaidDec 21, 2015DeadlineBy end of 2017Missed
  74. P05Tesla would have a car capable of full autonomy in about three years.SaidOct 14, 2015DeadlineBy 2018Missed
  75. P04True autonomous driving, where you can sleep and wake up at your destination, within about five to six years plus two to three years for regulators.SaidOct 10, 2014DeadlineBy 2023Missed
  76. P03A Tesla built the next year would be about 90% capable of Autopilot, for sure on highways.SaidOct 2, 2014Deadline2015Hit
  77. P02Within a year, a Tesla would go from highway on-ramp to exit without the driver touching any controls.SaidJun 3, 2014DeadlineBy mid 2015Missed
  78. P01Teslas would drive 90% of miles autonomously within three years.SaidSep 18, 2013DeadlineBy 2016Missed